(3-6 November 2006)
INTRODUCTION
Draft Version (W. Arber with additions
by President N. Cabibbo)
In its last 2 business meetings the PAS
Council discussed several alternative topics that had been proposed for the next
Plenary Session of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences in November 2006. On the
basis of these deliberations the Council has chosen the theme of
‘Predictability in science’. This theme is situated at the interphase
between fundamental science and its practical applications to the benefit of
human beings. We will welcome contributions on scientific predictions of
impending dangers, such as earthquakes, on the outlook for climate change, on
the analysis of nuclear and other technologies, in the role of prediction in the
medical sciences, and on many other scientific predictions and modelling
approaches that frequently also have their applications with impact on cultural
and socio-political developments.
According to Webster’s dictionary the
word prediction has two meanings: (1) a predicting or being predicted, and (2) a
prophecy. Obviously, only the first meaning applies to our proposed theme.
Therefore the word science in the title is important. It is not our role to
debate on prophecies. Predictions on a scientific basis can be more or less
accurate and have in most cases their intrinsic limitations. We therefore
consider expressing this in a subheading. The proposed theme would them read as
follows: “Predictability in Science: Accuracy and Limitations of Predictions
based on Scientific Knowledge”. We expect that all scientific disciplines
can contribute with selected examples to a wide debate on scientific predictions
and their relevance to society. Thereby, the awareness of natural limitations
that are inherent to many predictions plays an important role and it can insure
the trust in science in interactions between science and the civil society. The
distinction between certainties and uncertainties has since long been made by
many scientists presenting scientific knowledge, theories and models on natural
developments. A candid discussion on this theme by the Pontifical Academy of
Sciences can represent a clarifying view for both the scientific community and
the general public.
