PONTIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Working Group on:
Geosphere-Biosphere Interactions and Climate
(9-13 November 1998)
Conclusions
From 9-13 November 1998 an important workshop was held
at the Pontifical Academy of Sciences. This workshop on the subject of
Geosphere-Biosphere Interactions and Climate was concerned with
those enviromental and climatic changes which may pose a threat to human
society during the course of the next century. The general public knows
about this subject in terms of the greenhouse effect, tropical
deforestation, and a broad range of environmental problems. Human society
has now reached a state where it might bring about changes in the
conditions of human beings in ways which have never been experienced
before.
This meeting of world experts at the Pontifical Academy
of Sciences summarised our present-day knowledge about the subject and
identified gaps in our understanding of how the earth's climate is
affected by greenhouse gases, deforestation, and the circulation of the
oceans. The carbon cycle was examined by the working group and the ability
of the world's oceans and vegetation to absorb carbon dioxide was
described and investigated by a number of advanced computer models.
The gathering also discussed an even more controversial
and disturbing question. Several of those taking part in the meeting
presented data and models which demonstrated that both the world's climate
and the earth's life support system may be liable to abrupt and major
changes during the course of the twenty-first century. The experts present
were worried about this alarming possibility and were also concerned about
our lack of understanding about what actually brings about drastic
climatic change.
During his paper given on Thursday evening on the
subject of the ozone hole, the Nobel prize winner Professor Paul Crutzen
pointed out that the existence of the ozone hole had come as a surprise to
the scientific community. He strongly urged that the scientific community
should devote itself to studying and understanding abrupt and major
climatic changes. Small and even neglected changes may be important, as
indeed is the case with the ozone hole.
On the last day of the meeting a plenum discussion made
clear that cutbacks in basic science in many countries was the wrong step
to take at a time when basic research into the earth's life support system
was so urgent. The workshop also stressed the need to involve scientists
from developing countries in present-day research projects on the subject
of global change. This is especially important because many of these
countries are in the tropics where the consequences of climatic change and
changes in vegetation will have their greatest impact.
The papers delivered at this conference, and the
discussions which took place, will be published in book form as soon as
possible.
L. Bengtsson and C.U. Hammer
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